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Table 2 Brier score and ROC AUC by Risk Calculator outcome

From: Predicting complications of major head and neck oncological surgery: an evaluation of the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator

 

Without Free Flap*,†,a

With Free Flap*,†,a

Combined*,†,a

Outcome

Brier Score

ROC

Brier Score

ROC

Brier Score

ROC

Serious Complications

0.0838

0.5220

0.2508

0.6060

0.1743

0.7070

Any Complications

0.0861

0.5500

0.2474

0.6280

0.1735

0.7190

Pneumonia

0.0208

0.3230

0.0171

0.9120

0.0188

0.5430

Cardiac Complications

0.0000

N/A

0.0509

0.7670

0.0276

0.8380

SSI

0.0193

0.8850

0.1453

0.6830

0.0876

0.7900

UTI

0.0001

N/A

0.0339

0.4420

0.0184

0.4980

VTE

0.0001

N/A

0.0002

N/A

0.0001

N/A

Renal Failure

0.0000

N/A

0.0000

N/A

0.0000

N/A

Readmission

0.0183

1.0000

0.0627

0.7130

0.0445

0.6040

ROR

0.0234

0.2190

0.1406

0.6880

0.0869

0.7500

Death

0.0000

N/A

0.0001

N/A

0.0001

N/A

D/C SNF/Rehab

0.0232

0.8540

0.0281

0.9870

0.0259

0.8510

  1. *Brier scores of < 0.09 and ROC > 0.7 (bold values) were considered accurate
  2. aN/A indicates no ROC score could be calculated due to the absence of complications
  3. †Bold values meet or exceed their respective accuracy thresholds
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Journal of Otolaryngology - Head & Neck Surgery

ISSN: 1916-0216

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