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Table 2 Brier score and ROC AUC by Risk Calculator outcome

From: Predicting complications of major head and neck oncological surgery: an evaluation of the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator

  Without Free Flap*,†,a With Free Flap*,†,a Combined*,†,a
Outcome Brier Score ROC Brier Score ROC Brier Score ROC
Serious Complications 0.0838 0.5220 0.2508 0.6060 0.1743 0.7070
Any Complications 0.0861 0.5500 0.2474 0.6280 0.1735 0.7190
Pneumonia 0.0208 0.3230 0.0171 0.9120 0.0188 0.5430
Cardiac Complications 0.0000 N/A 0.0509 0.7670 0.0276 0.8380
SSI 0.0193 0.8850 0.1453 0.6830 0.0876 0.7900
UTI 0.0001 N/A 0.0339 0.4420 0.0184 0.4980
VTE 0.0001 N/A 0.0002 N/A 0.0001 N/A
Renal Failure 0.0000 N/A 0.0000 N/A 0.0000 N/A
Readmission 0.0183 1.0000 0.0627 0.7130 0.0445 0.6040
ROR 0.0234 0.2190 0.1406 0.6880 0.0869 0.7500
Death 0.0000 N/A 0.0001 N/A 0.0001 N/A
D/C SNF/Rehab 0.0232 0.8540 0.0281 0.9870 0.0259 0.8510
  1. *Brier scores of < 0.09 and ROC > 0.7 (bold values) were considered accurate
  2. aN/A indicates no ROC score could be calculated due to the absence of complications
  3. Bold values meet or exceed their respective accuracy thresholds